One of my German readers of this series of blogs has recommended you visit www.eike-klima-energie.eu. Herrn Sebastian Poetter is a leading Berlin and Brussels based lawyer and kindly posted me this link. It is in German but easy to translate.
The German economy (please refer my "Ping Pong Pang" Series) has been a sucess story this last 20 years. This success is based on a combination of world leading technical innovation, the availability of capital, investment into science and engineering skills, a flexible labour market, and access to relatively lower cost labour in other parts of Europe.
Germany is a high energy cost economy and was forecasted to become much more so, to the point that renewables (particularly wind) become competitive with nuclear and fossil fuels. The reality is different. That is a direct result of the energy revolution in the United States and Canada. This revolution will result in the US and Canada becoming largely self sufficient in energy and lower world prices for LNG and other fuels.
The result is that previous energy price forecasting for German industry is wrong and planned reliance on much higher priced renewables likely to cut a swathe through German manufacturing industry. Present energy price assumptions will destroy the aggregate advantages created by German industry.
I actually do not think this will come to pass. The Germans are too smart and they think long term and strategically. But it will mean changing the present assumptions and resulting policy mix. Change creates investment opportunities in a an environment of future declining world prices for energy sources.
Compared to the policy mess in Canberra, Australia, where clearly, there appear to be few smarts and even less strategic thinking, and i know where i would put my money. Not in LNG developments in Queensland. No wonder Woodside deferred its investment into its Browse LNG project in Western Australia.
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