Monday, 11 February 2013
THE WORLDS A SMALL PLACE
I have one of the top 5% most viewed @LinkedIn profiles for 2012. http://www.linkedin.com/pub/profile/21/74b/562
Friday, 8 February 2013
AUSTRALIAN UNEMPLOYMENT
For my readers who may be sceptical about my views of Australian real unemployment in recent blogs, please read Robert Gottliebsens' account in todays' Australian 8th Feb 2013. Further insighful analysis can be viewed in the latest edition of Business Acumen (February 2013).
Walking around the suburbs gives you a very different perspective from the aggregate data provided by the top end of town. This economy is in serious and increasing difficulty. That is why the major home builders are starting to "give" stock away.
1991-4 here we go again.
Walking around the suburbs gives you a very different perspective from the aggregate data provided by the top end of town. This economy is in serious and increasing difficulty. That is why the major home builders are starting to "give" stock away.
1991-4 here we go again.
Tuesday, 5 February 2013
AUSTRALIA'S BEST EXPORTS
Yesterday I compared the US and Australian trend costs of production, particularly energy and labour. It is reported today that one of the best examples of Australian venture backed technical innovation may move its manufacturing offshore.
Why?: because of Federal Government policy. And it has nothing to do with the exchange rate. It has everything to do with the anti-entrepreneurial culture pursued by the present Australian government and its mendicant status to the trade union movement.
Resmed is one of the few examples of successful venture backed technical innovation in Australia: alongside Cochlear and CSL.
It takes a generation and many hundreds of millions of dollars to found and build these international corporations. It also provides opportunities to build a viable venture capital industry in this country.
Present Federal Policy is putting all of this at risk: TODAY. Australian employees will suffer most - shareholders won't - and many will become Australia's best export: talented entrepreneurs, scientists, and engineers. The US and Singapore beckon.
This is far cry from the entrepreneur friendly policies of previous labour governments: to wit the Smart State of Peter Beattie and the Clever Country of Barry Jones, Paul Keating, and John Button.
What we are witnessing in Australia is old school socialism imported from the valleys of South Wales which is incrementally destroying the primary generators of employment in this country. Forget the notional unemployment figures. That is why the UK lost a generation of highly talented people educated at the taxpayers' expense to the US and the Commonwealth, including here. It devastated the ability of the UK to regenerate its manufacturing. It led to the Winter of Discontent.
Make no mistake, this can happen here if commodity prices slump. The rest of the economy is not going to take up the slack in the short run. It will take another generation and REAL LEADERSHIP.
Why?: because of Federal Government policy. And it has nothing to do with the exchange rate. It has everything to do with the anti-entrepreneurial culture pursued by the present Australian government and its mendicant status to the trade union movement.
Resmed is one of the few examples of successful venture backed technical innovation in Australia: alongside Cochlear and CSL.
It takes a generation and many hundreds of millions of dollars to found and build these international corporations. It also provides opportunities to build a viable venture capital industry in this country.
Present Federal Policy is putting all of this at risk: TODAY. Australian employees will suffer most - shareholders won't - and many will become Australia's best export: talented entrepreneurs, scientists, and engineers. The US and Singapore beckon.
This is far cry from the entrepreneur friendly policies of previous labour governments: to wit the Smart State of Peter Beattie and the Clever Country of Barry Jones, Paul Keating, and John Button.
What we are witnessing in Australia is old school socialism imported from the valleys of South Wales which is incrementally destroying the primary generators of employment in this country. Forget the notional unemployment figures. That is why the UK lost a generation of highly talented people educated at the taxpayers' expense to the US and the Commonwealth, including here. It devastated the ability of the UK to regenerate its manufacturing. It led to the Winter of Discontent.
Make no mistake, this can happen here if commodity prices slump. The rest of the economy is not going to take up the slack in the short run. It will take another generation and REAL LEADERSHIP.
Monday, 4 February 2013
2013: A YEAR OF RECOVERY: FOR THE SELECTED FEW
Those who have been following my blogs will see a consistent trend. Confidence in a US led, German supported recovery, irrespective of whether you are a China Bull or Bear. Why? Because the troops fight harder when their officers point a gun at their backs.
And so it is in the US and Europe. There is change and it will now come quite quickly. In the US, innovation rich manufacturing is replacing outsourcing to China. Why? Radically reducing energy costs; flexible labour markets, declining real wages, and a huge technology base. China's reported unit costs are inexeorably increasing. China's actual unit costs have always been higher once you include what are euphemistically referred to as "transaction costs". These are the costs of State involvement in industry.
We used to have them in Australia. Organisations like the State Banks of Victoria and South Australia which sent those States bankrupt. Yes, Australi has had its Peoples' Republics, and there is one operating out of Canberrra now, although it is falling apart, as centrally managed economies always do.
So whilst the Americans are about to profit from an energy renaissance and a competitive manufacturing economy, Australia, led by political donkeys, has gone in the opposite direction:vastly increased unit costs from rapidly rising energy and labour unit prices. Thats' OK though since the economy is doing really well. Isnt it Julia and Wayne?
Except that it isn't for many people, and especially the SME sector (Mittelstand for my German readers).
As an employer, I always looked at the job ads in the Saturday papers to see whether my competition might want my employees. For instance, in the Brisbane Courier Mail, there used to regularly be 120-130 pages of advertising. Last week, there was 16 pages, and I do not believe it was because of a shift to online ads.
German led Europe has a real chance of a return to growth and stability. The banks are recapitalised and in Germany, there is a property boom, especially in Berlin.
Whither Australia? A wasted year. Policy instability. It demontrates very clearly how the present Federal Government does not understand or does not care about business.
And so it is in the US and Europe. There is change and it will now come quite quickly. In the US, innovation rich manufacturing is replacing outsourcing to China. Why? Radically reducing energy costs; flexible labour markets, declining real wages, and a huge technology base. China's reported unit costs are inexeorably increasing. China's actual unit costs have always been higher once you include what are euphemistically referred to as "transaction costs". These are the costs of State involvement in industry.
We used to have them in Australia. Organisations like the State Banks of Victoria and South Australia which sent those States bankrupt. Yes, Australi has had its Peoples' Republics, and there is one operating out of Canberrra now, although it is falling apart, as centrally managed economies always do.
So whilst the Americans are about to profit from an energy renaissance and a competitive manufacturing economy, Australia, led by political donkeys, has gone in the opposite direction:vastly increased unit costs from rapidly rising energy and labour unit prices. Thats' OK though since the economy is doing really well. Isnt it Julia and Wayne?
Except that it isn't for many people, and especially the SME sector (Mittelstand for my German readers).
As an employer, I always looked at the job ads in the Saturday papers to see whether my competition might want my employees. For instance, in the Brisbane Courier Mail, there used to regularly be 120-130 pages of advertising. Last week, there was 16 pages, and I do not believe it was because of a shift to online ads.
German led Europe has a real chance of a return to growth and stability. The banks are recapitalised and in Germany, there is a property boom, especially in Berlin.
Whither Australia? A wasted year. Policy instability. It demontrates very clearly how the present Federal Government does not understand or does not care about business.
Wednesday, 23 January 2013
HARD TIMES BREED OPPORTUNITY
If you are interested in my view on the future of world equity markets, please visit Investor Relations/Investor Update at www.millhouse.co http://ow.ly/gUNsv
PING PONG PANG 2013 + JAPAN
My Ping Pong Pang Series from 2012 is confirmed by articles in todays press (Australian 23 Jan.Maurice Newma) & Nouriel Robini (AFR 23 Jan). Now add Japan. Australian currency and equity markets are likely to be positive in 2013 but the real Australian economy will be recessionary. SME's which are trade exposed are likely to face deflation in prices and volumes. Look at www.corpbuilders.com.au for some insights and possible solutions. http://ow.ly/h2LJG
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