There has been so much focus on China this last decade that the world has perhaps lost sight of developments in Japan. It is still the worlds' third largest economy and one of Australia's largest trading partners, especially for its commodities exports.
When I first visited Japan in the 1980's, real estate in Tokyo was the most expensive in the world. Two decades of deflation later, the present Japanese government and its central bank have embarked upon a massive program of money printing in an effort to stimulate inflation.
Change always creates opportunity for investors. Ask Kyle Bass and Richard Howard from Hayman Capital. Bass predicted the US sub-prime crisis and the European Sovereign debt explosion. They publicly predicted a "full blown bond (Japanese) bond crisis in the next few years". This arises from the threat of rising Japanese interest rates on sovereign debt consuming the "bulk of the nation's entire tax take". Hayman's view of Japan is cathartic.
That assumes the money printing instituted by Haruhiko Kuroda at the Japanese central bank does generate the required inflationary policy objective. It may not, as Ben Bernanke has found out in the United States. They can both control the supply of money, but they cannot control demand for it, or the velocity of its circulation. In the US, the velocity of circulation has been dropping - less activity for a quantum of money supply. That is one reason why the money printing to date in the US, UK, Europe has not resulted in inflation, or even inflationary expectations of consumers. Demand for money has dropped. Prices have deflated.
The same could occur in Japan. Hayman might be wrong, but keep an eye on its Japan Macro Opportunities Fund. That will give you some clues as to where Australia is going to head, both from a trade and an investment perspective.
Volatility in Japan could mean asset allocations to other countries, including Australia. That has implications for the relative value of the Australian dollar and its exports to its second largest trading partner.
Given the size of the Japanese money printing, a bet either way can have massive gains or losses at the fund and at the country level.
(You can find a full discussion at Australian Financial Review 11th May 2013 written by Jonathan Shapiro).
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Monday, 13 May 2013
THE PRICE OF POOR POLICY
The policies pursued by the present Australian Federal Government are now starting to hit home. And not in a good way. The effects, already apparent if you look, are now going to be apparent to every household and business.
Having pilloried the entrepreneurial people of this country, and targeted the so-called rich, government finances are now so precarious that the reach of the taxman is now extending beyond those small groups into middle Australia. Higher marginal tax rates, additional levies, and increased costs are now going to suck the financial life out of these households.
Imagine, an outer suburb, pleasant and leafy, but not wealthy, two children and a couple of dogs. A 4WD and an old second car for shopping and school. A belief in personal and social responsibility. The backbone of the nation. These are the people who are now going to pay the price because there are not enough "rich entrepreneurs" to go after, even if this were a proper policy goal.
It is going to take many years before the full impact of policy error works its way through the community, and as Maurice Newman comments "Younger Australians are entitled to look back in anger as they realise how recklessly their future has been mortgaged".
Add in the facts of the struggling SME sector where most of the employment presently is - (some of this is anecdotal, much is not):
Two of Australia's most eminent academic economists in a recent paper argue that "commodity prices, resources investment, and resources exports would shift from being a powerful stimulus .... to a deflationary influence of similar force over the next 18 months". (Reported by David Uren, Australian 13th May).
Scary stuff.
I have long commented that political and institutional Australia has been hiding behind aggregate economic data. Now the tide is going out and we all shall see - especially middle Australia - who has clothes on.
Having pilloried the entrepreneurial people of this country, and targeted the so-called rich, government finances are now so precarious that the reach of the taxman is now extending beyond those small groups into middle Australia. Higher marginal tax rates, additional levies, and increased costs are now going to suck the financial life out of these households.
Imagine, an outer suburb, pleasant and leafy, but not wealthy, two children and a couple of dogs. A 4WD and an old second car for shopping and school. A belief in personal and social responsibility. The backbone of the nation. These are the people who are now going to pay the price because there are not enough "rich entrepreneurs" to go after, even if this were a proper policy goal.
It is going to take many years before the full impact of policy error works its way through the community, and as Maurice Newman comments "Younger Australians are entitled to look back in anger as they realise how recklessly their future has been mortgaged".
Add in the facts of the struggling SME sector where most of the employment presently is - (some of this is anecdotal, much is not):
- 1,000 restaurants to close;
- 62% of SME's are chasing late payments from debtors totalling over A$10.00 billion;
- 240,000 jobs lost in the SME sector;
- Reduced hours because of penalty rates, even if people wanted to work those hours at the normal rate;
- 51% fall in engineering vacancies.
Two of Australia's most eminent academic economists in a recent paper argue that "commodity prices, resources investment, and resources exports would shift from being a powerful stimulus .... to a deflationary influence of similar force over the next 18 months". (Reported by David Uren, Australian 13th May).
Scary stuff.
I have long commented that political and institutional Australia has been hiding behind aggregate economic data. Now the tide is going out and we all shall see - especially middle Australia - who has clothes on.
Wednesday, 8 May 2013
Please review my blogs of 6th December 2012 ("Finally the truth is out") and 18th February 2013 ("Lions led by donkeys"). What you read in those blogs is now becoming daily news.
As Henry Ergas reports (Australian 4th May 2013), "Bad policy just does not happen". How right he is.
For my non-Australian readers, the Australian economy is being squeezed from several directions at once. Some of these pressures are inflicted by its own government, and some are the consequences of a globalised world and just have to be managed.
What is clear, and many Australians are starting to become very concerned about their specific situations, is that the future is not going to be like the immediate past. Why?
First: The money-tap is being tightened by falling real commodity prices and increasing supply sources. This will also apply to LNG and other commodities as the United States and Canadian suppliers change patterns and pricing in world markets. Reversion to the long term price mean results in lower prices for Australian producers.
Second:The global sea of newly created money in the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan pushes down the relative quantity of Australian dollars, and increases its relative price, especially since the Federal debt remains AAA rated, along with Norway, Switzerland, Canada, and Sweden. The ECB may reduce European interest rates to zero or below. Australia has relied heavily on foreign capital inflows, which presently upwardly support the relative value of the Australian dollar. But, because Australia is not a "developed" country in the sense that Switzerland is, and Australia will continue to require capital inflows to "develop", then the policy measures to reduce the relative strength of the Australian dollar need to be be different. Taxing those foreign inflows, as proposed by eminent economist Henry Thornton (nom de plume), may not be the solution. And reductions in Australian official interest rates are probably akin to pushing on a string.
The chances are therefore, that the relative value of the Australian dollar will remain where it is. That changes the producer economics permanently and reduces domestic profit margins hugely at a time of rising unit cost structures. Hence the lower corporate tax receipts, even though Australian corporate taxes are high by world standards.
Third:Australian public debt as a percentage of GDP is reported to be relatively low by "developed country" standards. What is not reported is that if you add in the sovereign debt of the Australian States and Territories (who can themselves borrow on world capital markets), you get a vastly higher level of sovereign debt (about twice Federal debt). This is already becoming a political issue in Australia with fiscal consolidation occurring Federally and in the States. Governments are needing to borrow for well into the foreseeable future.
Four: Price inflation for tradeable goods and services is presently benign in Australia. Price inflation for statutorily mandated services, pensions, labour, electricity, and utilities is significant, and is causing increasing business and household distress. So are personal tax rises. Australians pay a top marginal rate of almost 50% if you include levies and other quasi income taxes. The marginal rate in Singapore is 20% and in New Zealand 33%, and both countries are competitors for Australian talent.
Five:It is inevitable that measured unemployment will rise. The real killers, as I have blogged before, are underemployment, a belief that jobs aren't available, and a decline in entrepreneurial activity. It is this loss of confidence that is deflating property prices. If people are not confident, or they know people who are not confident, they will not borrow money, no matter how low the interest rate. Go back to 1991. At some point, this will affect the banks and the bubble in bank share prices will be pricked as a result.
This all points to a deflationary domestic environment. Real spending in government, business, and households will decline. So will the velocity of circulation of money. This makes Australia and Australians vulnerable and uncertain. That is certainly the feeling you get talking to real people. Real people understand intuitively and from walking around that things are not as well as they were. Political and institutional Australia is only now waking up to that reality. Their problem is that they have lost control and do not have the necessary policy tools to regain it without significant forthcoming pain.
More and personalised guidance can be found at www.corpbuilders.com.au
As Henry Ergas reports (Australian 4th May 2013), "Bad policy just does not happen". How right he is.
For my non-Australian readers, the Australian economy is being squeezed from several directions at once. Some of these pressures are inflicted by its own government, and some are the consequences of a globalised world and just have to be managed.
What is clear, and many Australians are starting to become very concerned about their specific situations, is that the future is not going to be like the immediate past. Why?
First: The money-tap is being tightened by falling real commodity prices and increasing supply sources. This will also apply to LNG and other commodities as the United States and Canadian suppliers change patterns and pricing in world markets. Reversion to the long term price mean results in lower prices for Australian producers.
Second:The global sea of newly created money in the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan pushes down the relative quantity of Australian dollars, and increases its relative price, especially since the Federal debt remains AAA rated, along with Norway, Switzerland, Canada, and Sweden. The ECB may reduce European interest rates to zero or below. Australia has relied heavily on foreign capital inflows, which presently upwardly support the relative value of the Australian dollar. But, because Australia is not a "developed" country in the sense that Switzerland is, and Australia will continue to require capital inflows to "develop", then the policy measures to reduce the relative strength of the Australian dollar need to be be different. Taxing those foreign inflows, as proposed by eminent economist Henry Thornton (nom de plume), may not be the solution. And reductions in Australian official interest rates are probably akin to pushing on a string.
The chances are therefore, that the relative value of the Australian dollar will remain where it is. That changes the producer economics permanently and reduces domestic profit margins hugely at a time of rising unit cost structures. Hence the lower corporate tax receipts, even though Australian corporate taxes are high by world standards.
Third:Australian public debt as a percentage of GDP is reported to be relatively low by "developed country" standards. What is not reported is that if you add in the sovereign debt of the Australian States and Territories (who can themselves borrow on world capital markets), you get a vastly higher level of sovereign debt (about twice Federal debt). This is already becoming a political issue in Australia with fiscal consolidation occurring Federally and in the States. Governments are needing to borrow for well into the foreseeable future.
Four: Price inflation for tradeable goods and services is presently benign in Australia. Price inflation for statutorily mandated services, pensions, labour, electricity, and utilities is significant, and is causing increasing business and household distress. So are personal tax rises. Australians pay a top marginal rate of almost 50% if you include levies and other quasi income taxes. The marginal rate in Singapore is 20% and in New Zealand 33%, and both countries are competitors for Australian talent.
Five:It is inevitable that measured unemployment will rise. The real killers, as I have blogged before, are underemployment, a belief that jobs aren't available, and a decline in entrepreneurial activity. It is this loss of confidence that is deflating property prices. If people are not confident, or they know people who are not confident, they will not borrow money, no matter how low the interest rate. Go back to 1991. At some point, this will affect the banks and the bubble in bank share prices will be pricked as a result.
This all points to a deflationary domestic environment. Real spending in government, business, and households will decline. So will the velocity of circulation of money. This makes Australia and Australians vulnerable and uncertain. That is certainly the feeling you get talking to real people. Real people understand intuitively and from walking around that things are not as well as they were. Political and institutional Australia is only now waking up to that reality. Their problem is that they have lost control and do not have the necessary policy tools to regain it without significant forthcoming pain.
More and personalised guidance can be found at www.corpbuilders.com.au
Tuesday, 7 May 2013
INVESTING IN VOLATILE TIMES
For my many readers who have been following the themes in these blogs, you can gain some insight into how this is being developed into investment strategy by visiting: http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/75159/Article
Monday, 6 May 2013
THE DESTRUCTION OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND THE POLITICISATION OF SCIENCE
This series of blogs reflecting disparate climate change opinion commenced on the 13th April 2013 where I related my early experiences in the politicisation of science. In particular, the predictions by one Paul Ehrlich in the 1970's that the earth will cool and food supply will be reduced. Scientific opinion and Malthusian economics rolled into one. Neither proved true.
And neither have the more recent hyperventilations on so-called anthropogenic warming which is leading to significant economic hardships in Australia and flawed energy policy in Germany and other countries. In these countries, destruction of comparative advantage is the result. My most recent post on this issue described what is likely to happen given the energy revolution underway in the United States.
Very credible scientists from the United States, Russia, and Taiwan now offer different views on climate change, and appear to be of the view that the earth is heading for a cooling period.
Abdussamatov from the Russian Academy of Sciences believes that "another cool period was due and would come about regardless of whether industrialised countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions". "Mars has global warming....without the participation of Martians". He predicts a new "little Ice Age" will start this year or next"(On earth).
Hill at the US National Solar Observatory said "three different analyses of the sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin". From the Academia Sinica in Taiwan, where there are concerns about cooling as a result of Chinese emissions, Hsu states " the pause in warmingof the past decade is more likely to be explained by natural variability".
So there you have it: From the US: "the connections between solar activity and climate change are still very poorly understood"; from Taiwan: "the problem is the present state of climate models is still too simplistic for nature", and from Russia "a deep freeze that would last for the rest of the century".
(For interested readers, please refer to Graham Lloyds' column, Weekend Australian May 4-5 2013 and the original references).
From an investors' perspective, the gaming of misguided public policy could reap huge rewards. The losers are the households, small businesses, and larger company shareholders who all have to pay the costs associated with politicised public policy.
And neither have the more recent hyperventilations on so-called anthropogenic warming which is leading to significant economic hardships in Australia and flawed energy policy in Germany and other countries. In these countries, destruction of comparative advantage is the result. My most recent post on this issue described what is likely to happen given the energy revolution underway in the United States.
Very credible scientists from the United States, Russia, and Taiwan now offer different views on climate change, and appear to be of the view that the earth is heading for a cooling period.
Abdussamatov from the Russian Academy of Sciences believes that "another cool period was due and would come about regardless of whether industrialised countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions". "Mars has global warming....without the participation of Martians". He predicts a new "little Ice Age" will start this year or next"(On earth).
Hill at the US National Solar Observatory said "three different analyses of the sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin". From the Academia Sinica in Taiwan, where there are concerns about cooling as a result of Chinese emissions, Hsu states " the pause in warmingof the past decade is more likely to be explained by natural variability".
So there you have it: From the US: "the connections between solar activity and climate change are still very poorly understood"; from Taiwan: "the problem is the present state of climate models is still too simplistic for nature", and from Russia "a deep freeze that would last for the rest of the century".
(For interested readers, please refer to Graham Lloyds' column, Weekend Australian May 4-5 2013 and the original references).
From an investors' perspective, the gaming of misguided public policy could reap huge rewards. The losers are the households, small businesses, and larger company shareholders who all have to pay the costs associated with politicised public policy.
Thursday, 2 May 2013
THE DESTRUCTION OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN GERMANY
One of my German readers of this series of blogs has recommended you visit www.eike-klima-energie.eu. Herrn Sebastian Poetter is a leading Berlin and Brussels based lawyer and kindly posted me this link. It is in German but easy to translate.
The German economy (please refer my "Ping Pong Pang" Series) has been a sucess story this last 20 years. This success is based on a combination of world leading technical innovation, the availability of capital, investment into science and engineering skills, a flexible labour market, and access to relatively lower cost labour in other parts of Europe.
Germany is a high energy cost economy and was forecasted to become much more so, to the point that renewables (particularly wind) become competitive with nuclear and fossil fuels. The reality is different. That is a direct result of the energy revolution in the United States and Canada. This revolution will result in the US and Canada becoming largely self sufficient in energy and lower world prices for LNG and other fuels.
The result is that previous energy price forecasting for German industry is wrong and planned reliance on much higher priced renewables likely to cut a swathe through German manufacturing industry. Present energy price assumptions will destroy the aggregate advantages created by German industry.
I actually do not think this will come to pass. The Germans are too smart and they think long term and strategically. But it will mean changing the present assumptions and resulting policy mix. Change creates investment opportunities in a an environment of future declining world prices for energy sources.
Compared to the policy mess in Canberra, Australia, where clearly, there appear to be few smarts and even less strategic thinking, and i know where i would put my money. Not in LNG developments in Queensland. No wonder Woodside deferred its investment into its Browse LNG project in Western Australia.
The German economy (please refer my "Ping Pong Pang" Series) has been a sucess story this last 20 years. This success is based on a combination of world leading technical innovation, the availability of capital, investment into science and engineering skills, a flexible labour market, and access to relatively lower cost labour in other parts of Europe.
Germany is a high energy cost economy and was forecasted to become much more so, to the point that renewables (particularly wind) become competitive with nuclear and fossil fuels. The reality is different. That is a direct result of the energy revolution in the United States and Canada. This revolution will result in the US and Canada becoming largely self sufficient in energy and lower world prices for LNG and other fuels.
The result is that previous energy price forecasting for German industry is wrong and planned reliance on much higher priced renewables likely to cut a swathe through German manufacturing industry. Present energy price assumptions will destroy the aggregate advantages created by German industry.
I actually do not think this will come to pass. The Germans are too smart and they think long term and strategically. But it will mean changing the present assumptions and resulting policy mix. Change creates investment opportunities in a an environment of future declining world prices for energy sources.
Compared to the policy mess in Canberra, Australia, where clearly, there appear to be few smarts and even less strategic thinking, and i know where i would put my money. Not in LNG developments in Queensland. No wonder Woodside deferred its investment into its Browse LNG project in Western Australia.
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